Philippines lowers export goals through 2028 amid global headwinds

Revised projections through 2028 reflect weaker demand and continued trade disruptions

The government now expects this year’s shipment value to fall within $113.4 billion to $110.8 billion, a stark contrast to the original, ambitious $163.6-billion goal.

The Export Development Council (EDC) also lowered its projections for the next several years. This adjustment is driven by softer global demand and ongoing trade disruptions, according to Trade and Industry Export Marketing Bureau director Bianca Sykimte.

Revised Philippine Export Projections (2025–2028)

The downward revisions signal slowing global growth and continued supply chain uncertainties, compounded by the US trade war and geopolitical tensions.

Year	Original Estimate	Revised Outlook Range
2025	$186.7 billion	$120.2 billion to $116.1 billion
2027	$212.2 billion	$123.3 billion to $127.4 billion
2028	$240.5 billion	$132.8 billion to $135.1 billion

Speaking on the sidelines of Exporters’ Week in Mandaluyong on Thursday, Sykimte said the country must recalibrate given the broader challenges. She noted that the Philippines has missed its export targets for the past two years.

Electronics remain key to Philippine exports

The Philippine Statistics Authority (PSA) reported late last week that Philippine exports for the January–October period reached $70.43 billion, up 13.8 percent from $61.90 billion a year ago.

• Electronics remained the top export commodity with receipts of $4.18 billion, accounting for 56.6 percent of total shipments.
• The US remained the country’s largest market at $1.16 billion, or 15.7 percent of total trade.

Sergio Ortiz-Luis Jr., president of the Philippine Exporters Confederation Inc. (Philexport), said the revised targets lean toward what is “attainable” given the uncertainty in the global market.

“As you know, 15 percent of our exports go to the US, half of which [is] electronics. And electronics are running flat; it will already be a good run if we end up with 2 percent growth,” he said. “This target now is set up to be more realistic.”

The call for increased MSME and sector support

Ortiz-Luis said exporters have long urged the government to increase support for the sector, noting that funding through the Department of Trade and Industry (DTI) remains “very minimal compared to our neighbors.”

“We should really support the sector, especially for the SMEs. I think it is high time for the government to rethink how it views MSMEs and exports,” he said.

Sykimte earlier confirmed that the government dropped specific export targets through 2028 due to political tensions affecting major trade routes and a “serious decline” in the number of active exporters. The Philippines currently ranks 49th in global merchandise exports and trades with 200 international markets.

DTI Initiatives: Digital Tools and MSME Hubs

To strengthen the sector and build trust among global stakeholders, the DTI is focusing on providing accessible trade solutions.

• The DTI launched its digital exporter directory, PHX Source, designed to help international buyers and manufacturers source local suppliers more easily. Sykimte said digital tools and a stronger online presence can help build trust among global stakeholders.
• The DTI also opened its MSME Hub at the Filinvest building, featuring food and beverage, apparel, art, and home décor products by small businesses nationwide. Trade Secretary Cristina Roque led the launch with other DTI officials.

With reports from John Lloyd Aleta

 

 

The Philippine government has sharply reduced export projections through 2028, cutting this year’s shipment outlook to as low as $110.8 billion—well below earlier goals.

 

 

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